When Long Tails Go Wrong

At a recent speech at a stealth startup, I was asked a provocative question:

"Sure, I can see how the rise of efficient markets creates Long Tails of expanded variety in most categories. But are there categories where efficient markets could actually create less choice?"

    The example given was television sets. At first blush, that doesn't seem like a market that's begging for a huge amount of variety. The TV industry consists of a few different broad technologies (CRT, plasma, LCD, front and rear projection, HDTV, etc), a limited range of sizes, and some variation in quality.  Between these types, the average Best Buy carries somewhere between 30 and 50 different TVs, which are chosen to satisfy the most common needs. Is that enough? Does the world really want a zillion different kind of TVs?

    Well, the world may not want a huge variety of television types, but that's actually what it 's got. Amazon alone lists 3,200 different kinds of TV sets , which probably just represents a fraction of all the different models and brands actually sold. Why are there so many? After all, they're just screens of a few different sizes; who needs all that confusing choice?

    The answer to that question gets at one of the paradoxes of market economics. Sometimes inefficient distribution actually creates more variety, not less. And sometimes the act of making those markets more efficient, which is the core of the Long Tail, actually has the effect of reducing choice.

    Weird, huh? Here's how it works: The usual situation I describe is one in which distribution bottlenecks, such as the limited shelf space in most traditional retail stores, have capped the variety available. So as much as you might like that documentary DVD or blues CD, it just isn't on the shelf at Blockbuster or Wal-Mart. And every store you go to has the same limited supply of hits.

    But sometimes, as is the case with TVs, there's a twist: every store you go to has a few of the same hits and then a fair smattering of similar products that you've never heard of. So along with the Sony and Samsung as Wal-Mart, you'll also find cheap no-names such as iLo and Tatung, many of which also sell in other discount retailers, supermarkets and small electronics stores. As a result, there appears to be a huge number of products on the market.

    This situation crops in markets where the variety comes not from the fundamental nature of the products but in segmentation based on price, availability, and customer fear and confusion. The 26" Sony LCD TV may not be any better than the Syntax Olevia, but it costs nearly three times as much. Why? Because someone's willing to pay that to get the peace of mind that comes with the Sony name. Or they simply don't know better.

    As you've probably guessed, most of the TVs you can buy, regardless of what name they go under, use parts made in the same Chinese or Korean factories. As a result, with the exception of the highest-end technologies, such as really big LCDs or superbright projectors, TVs are more alike than they are different. The no-name brands recognize that TV technology at the low end has become a commodity, and they appeal to those consumers who no longer believe that big brands convey enough additional quality to be worth a substantial price premium.

    The cause of all this artificially inflated choice comes from the phenomena of  information asymmetry, the situation where sellers have more information than buyers. In those cases competition doesn't work as well as it might in killing off the weak products, from the old to the overpriced.  So you get islands of diversity, not because that's what buyers want but because the market is suppressing the head-to-head competition that would have otherwise quickly thinned the ranks of choice.

    Much of the apparent variety in the TV market today is really just an abundance of poor choices (older models, uncompetitive prices, bad reviews, missing features, etc). Why do such products exist? Because consumers are in the dark.   How do you know that the TV on the shelf is the latest model, and not last year's model that the retailer is trying to get rid of? The answer, all too often: you don't.

    But what if everyone bought TVs from a Long Tail retailer like Amazon instead? Well, initially you'd have the aforementioned overwhelming variety of choice. Amazon lists these products largely because they sell somewhere and are available from the distributors, not because they represent good value. But on Amazon customers can easily inform themselves well enough to avoid the dreck. Despite the apparently overwhelming variety, it's easy to see the main categories, choices and brands. And through the miracle of "rank by bestselling", "...by price" or "...by review", good choices rise to the top.

    Presumably, if everyone bought TVs from Amazon, the ones that represent poor value would simply stop selling and be taken off the market.  Consumers would be empowered by information to shop more wisely and the profusion of empty choices would reduce to a smaller number of real ones. And thus the same Long Tail retailer that's expanding variety in music, books and DVDs, would actually reduce variety in TVs.

    So there you have it: a weird wormhole in the Long Tail, where the usual effect of infinite shelf space is turned on its head. So much for my Grand Unified Theory.

    Unless, of course, it turns out that there really is demand for massive variety in TVs, just not the sort of choice we've been offered so far. What if, for instance, you could buy TVs that came in as many different styles as your clothes? What if you could personalize them with sports logos or rock band designs? What if you could buy them shaped like soccer balls or with sheep's feet? What if they came in as many shapes and sizes and finishes as furniture does? What, in short, if they were sold a little like this?

    Now that would be real choice. Maybe there's room for a Long Tail of TVs after all.

Comments

[Jojo]

The problem is that there is TOO MUCH choice in many consumer items these days. It isn't because consumers want so many choices, but because it benefits the sellers to have many choices, as it makes it easy to befuddle the average consumer. If, as a seller, you do a good job of this, then you might just be able to sell a crappy product for a higher price.

With the TV example, you'll find it next to impossible to compare models. Oh sure, there are comparison matrices but the sets are designed so that they all have a slightly different set of features and functionality. It is near impossible to compare apples to apples. This is how the sellers beat the technology of consumers being able to compare prices on the net. This also works to the seller's advantage when they advertise "lowest price". Even with major brands, some large sellers have the manufacturer build models to their specifications and add some letter or number to the model designation. You won't be able to find this model at any other local store and therefore, any guarantee of lowest price is meaningless.

Regardless of technology, the seller almost always maintains the advantage when it comes to selling to consumers.

[Vegas Nitro]

As hinted in the last paragraph, maybe the long tail requires significantly different features/attributes between each product to really work. But unless manufacturers start to really customize TVs on demand (à la Dell) I don't really see it as a Long Tail problem. It's more like the classic "low margins / high volume" vs "high margins / low volume" marketing concept.

[Josh Ray]

I wouldn't say this is a weird wormhole so much as an ADVANTAGE of the long tail.

Simply, it's weeding out the knock-offs, junk-models and other products that prey on consumer ignorance.

And this isn't unique for TVs - all electronics have the same issues. Speakers, DVD players, computer accessories, and more all face this copy-cat competition.

To give an example, a friend of mine recently purchased a $40 no-name DVD player (cyberhome ch-dvd300s) at Best Buy which, when popping in a DVD, proceeded to freeze. She returned the piece of junk and spent $80 on Sony's cheapest, yet rock-solid, model.
I tried to advise her to look the no-name up on cnet before buying, but she didn't and now she knows.

I imagine as "review-aggregation" becomes more widespread, these no-name companies with nothing unique to offer (other than a slightly lower price) will quickly lose their uniformed purchaser base and fold.

Interestingly, a GREAT example of the long tail in electronics is high-end audio. While Bose, JBL and others have the main market, there are literally hundreds and hundreds of equipment manufacturers that make amazing gear that costs exponentially more than anything coming out of the big companies - just pick up a Stereophile magazine to see the madness.

Redwineaudio.com is a great example of a small outfit that, through forums and e-mags like 6moons.com, was able to get a foothold in a hyper-competitive industry by selling home-made electronics that simply sound awesome.

Also, here's an interesting example of a custom long-tail TV manufacture:
http://www.hannspree.com/us/

BTW, I discovered your blog through infotalk and love it. I'm sure future books will be seen as, well, unacademic if written in any other way than on a blog.

[Josh Ray]

Blind me, I didn't notice the hannspree link at the bottom of your post.
Yes, not only do they make heli-TVs, but they also put LCDs inside of flowers, baseballs and stuffed sheep.
Interestingly, crazy electronics like this have found home in Akihabara for years. Now with the internet's global reach, bizarre niche products are finally disseminating into homes all over the world. (I imported a crazy Konica Minolta camera case from Japan just the other day...)

[Francis Hamit]

That part about the sellers knowing more than the buyers has a neat counterpart called Zipf's Priniple of Least Effort. That means that buyers are lazy and tend to buy an item the first place they find it. That's true for big ticket items as well as the Life Savers next to cash register. Price is less of a consideration than getting on with your life. Electronic databases are a case in point. The same articles available for free at the Public Library cost three dollars per copy and up on Lexis-Nexis, Dialog, Factiva et al. The distribution is done by the same aggregator. So, it is only the brand name of the service that adds value.

[Larry Irons]

It strikes me that the issue you raise depends on televisions as well as other displays remaining flat. As displays become flexible the variety of ways televisions and other displays mold to our everyday life will make them increasingly personal.

[Eric Goldman]

This post caught me off-guard, because I would have assumed that the Long Tail theory doesn't really apply outside the context of media content. And that's because I thought the Long Tail develops from reduced manufacturing and distribution costs. While big-box products like TVs may see some incremental benefit from disintermediation, the effect seems wholly insubstantial compared to the disintermediation in media. So maybe the wormhole you've identified is really just the quirks of trying to apply the Long Tail theory too broadly...? Eric.

[Francis Hamit]

Well, Eric, disintermediation does work for phyisical goods. It is how Amazon captured most of the used book business. There are 800,000* third party dealers selling books though Amazon marketplace. Amazon, unlike eBay,charges nothing until the book is actually sold. Aside from collecting their cut, they do nothing. The dealer handles shipping, refunds and customer complaints. Why dothe dealers play along? Well, the store is always open and you have over 30 million potential customers. They also do auctions and storefronts, but unlike a real store in a physical location, you don't have to be there to make a sale. So, its a win-win, all around. If you do it right you have twice the margin of a regular bookstore too.

[Kaleberg]

The proliferation of television and related electronics models smacks of a different phenomenon, the Red Queen Hypothesis. Evolutionary biologists speculate that the genetics of a population is in a continuous state of flux in response to predators (e.g. infectious bacteria) and prey (e.g. hosts for bacteria). One has to run as fast as one can to remain in place. (Actually the theory is not that blood thirsty, one also has to co-evolve with one's symbionts or develop alternate strategies).

So, who are the predators, who are the prey, and does the resulting marketplace have power curve, long tail characteristics?

One thing to consider is that certain products have good reputations. There are some companies that cost a bit more, but generally provide better quality. Then, there are the various compromises.

There is also a relatively low cost to adding a model. If Sears, or CostCo, or Walmart wants a line of televisions, a manufacturer can easily change a face plate, add or remove a button or a feature. This was easy enough in the old days, but with software so important now, it has become trivial to add or remove something.

While it is possible to simply change the nameplate, any desire to maintain a pricing system and continue selling higher and lower priced models requires some kind of differentiation.

Consider the refrigerator market in the 1930s. To grow the market, makers wanted to have lower cost models, but the freon piping was more or less the same. Water freezes and food rots at the same temperature levels. When the 1936 "nudes" were introduced, the difference was in the shelves, ice cube trays and crispers.

Consider houses in the late 19th century. The balloon frame construction and general layouts stayed the same, so the competition was in the "gingerbread". In the next century, new features, like hot and cold running water, electrical lighting and central heating systems changed the way people lived, so houses competed on different features.

You get a similar cycle of technical innovation and feature efflourescence in other areas as well. Consider automobiles. The technology soared from 1900 to 1950, then came chrome and tailfins. The 1970s and 1980s produced dull boxes, then came supersizing and cup holders.

Hell, consider software. The innovation has slowed dramatically, so people compete on features.

Is there still a long tail? Most definitely. During the innovative phase, the tail tends to concentrate, as a small group competes to get it right, and all too many competitors just can't figure it out. (I worked for Software Arts, so I remember the early VisiCalc clones, before 123 and Quattro). Then comes the low entry cost feature competition, and there you get your long tail growing.

The Red Queen Hypothesis drives the change, but it is niche market exploitation that drives the diversity. Remember, in televisions manufacturing, the end customer is the distributor or store chain, not the consumer.

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