Mainstream Media Meltdown III

A couple times a year, I take a statistical look at mainstream entertainment and media in decline. All figures are year-on-year comparisons unless otherwise noted. (The last version of this, from November, is here).

Down:

• TV: network TV had its lowest ratings week ever in July.
• Music: weekly album sales set a 10-year low in July. For the year, CD album sales are down 4.2%; although digital single downloads (still less than 10% of the business) are up 77% and are nearly making up the difference in revenue terms. 
• Radio: the music radio listening audience is down 8.5% this year alone, continuing a multi-decade decline.
• DVDs: shipments are down 4% so far this year, more than 30 million units behind the same period last year.
• Newspapers: circulation, which peaked in 1987, is declining faster than ever and is down another 2.6% so far this year.

Mixed:

• Magazines: ad revenues are up 3.7% although the total number of ad pages is flat (they're charging more per page). Newsstand sales are at an all-time low, while total circulation was down 0.3% last year. 
• Books: up slightly so far this year (but still lagging behind overall retail growth).

Up:

• Box Office: is up by 5.8% so far this year (but still down 4.2% from 2004).
• Videogames: The long slump caused by the next-gen hardware transition (Xbox-to-Xbox 360 and PS2-to-forthcoming-PS3) seems to have finally ended. June sales were up 25%.
• Internet advertising: is on pace to grow by 21% this year. Google's revenues grew by 77% in the most recent quarter.

A couple times a year, I take a statistical look at mainstream entertainment and media in decline. All figures are year-on-year comparisons unless otherwise noted. (The last version of this, from November, is here).

Down:

• TV: network TV had its lowest ratings week ever in July.
• Music: weekly album sales set a 10-year low in July. For the year, CD album sales are down 4.2%; although digital single downloads (still less than 10% of the business) are up 77% and are nearly making up the difference in revenue terms. 
• Radio: the music radio listening audience is down 8.5% this year alone, continuing a multi-decade decline.
• DVDs: shipments are down 4% so far this year, more than 30 million units behind the same period last year.
• Newspapers: circulation, which peaked in 1987, is declining faster than ever and is down another 2.6% so far this year.

Mixed:

• Magazines: ad revenues are up 3.7% although the total number of ad pages is flat (they're charging more per page). Newsstand sales are at an all-time low, while total circulation was down 0.3% last year. 
• Books: up slightly so far this year (but still lagging behind overall retail growth).

Up:

• Box Office: is up by 5.8% so far this year (but still down 4.2% from 2004).
• Videogames: The long slump caused by the next-gen hardware transition (Xbox-to-Xbox 360 and PS2-to-forthcoming-PS3) seems to have finally ended. June sales were up 25%.
• Internet advertising: is on pace to grow by 21% this year. Google's revenues grew by 77% in the most recent quarter.

Comments

[Eli]

Correction: DVD revenue is flat this year. It's not down:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6349362.html

(Surely revenue, which you use for most other categories, is more important than the nebulous "shipments")

[scrizer]

One question? Is it possible that sales being driven in the long tail are former hits? Is majority of the long tail demand focussed on media hyped by marketing, but not consumed in the initial windows, later purchased when met with a lower pricing on an easily accesible channel? Is that why many 'flops' do comparitively well in the ancillary markets because they were hits not consumed at a premium price?

Currently doing a thesis on Online media distribution, your thoughts would be of immense value, should you choose to post this.

[Skeptic]

While these stats are nicely isolated and collected together to serve your interests, I think there is something missing here. Do you have any stats on long-tail content consumption this past month? And I don't mean 'youtube videos', since 95% of what is watched is illegal stuff anyway.

I'd be interested in a real comparison of, say, podcast listening in the same time versus iTunes downloads or radio or satellite radio subscriptions. These 'data points' on their own are basically floating until you get the rest together...

[buns and chou chou]

This is all wrong. Don't worry about the Long Tail! You ever heard of the fat tail mate?

http://www.rabbitbites.com/archive/longtail.html

[scrizer]

95% of what is watched on YouTube isn't illegal. Around 70% of the Top 20 Most viewed are user generated/reaggregated, followed by branded micromedia, which is around 30% (movie clippings, music videos, etc)

[luke]

I'm interested to know why "Internet Advertising" is lumped in with "mainstream media" ? Esp. when citing Google! Doesn't Google represent a long tail advertiser in addition to their role as a hit advertiser? Isn't Google used as an example in the book?!

[Clyde Smith]

I hear the Internet's a big hit with the kids these days.

[xmas presents]

Actually, movie theater admissions have been down for the past two years in a row. Increased ticket prices have covered up this erosion by showing increases in revenue.