[From my inbox this morn, data contradicting the Will Page analysis]
“eMUSIC SALES DATA SUPPORTS "LONG TAIL² CONCEPT
Approximately 75% of Tracks Sold In 2008
Catalogue Crosses Five Million
NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 15, 2009 eMusic, the world's largest retailer of
independent music and the first to sell DRM-free MP3s in Europe, today
announced that approximately 75% of eMusic tracks sold at least once during
2008 based on a recent analysis of worldwide sales data. This finding
supports the existence of retail's "Long Tail² and contradicts a November
2008 study released by British licensing body MCPS-PRS. That study claimed
that of the 13 million songs on the internet, ten million did not sell a
single copy.
The theory that the internet enables businesses to sell a large selection of
goods in small quantities to a large population of customers at minimum cost
was popularised as the "Long Tail² by Chris Anderson in a Wired magazine
article in 2004. eMusic, which does not sell music from the four major
record labels, is a successful example of the theory.
"eMusic IS the Long Tail,² said Madeleine Milne, eMusic Managing Director,
Europe. "Our customers buy music beyond the mainstream top 40 because we
provide them with more context than any other major music retailer through
Web 2.0 features, insightful editorial content, a passionate subscriber
community and an easy-to-use and effective recommendation engine. And, we
reinforce the music discovery experience with subscription pricing that
encourages experimentation.²
The company also announced that its catalogue has surpassed five million
tracks. In the previous year, the company has added titles from Righteous
Babe, Independiente and Wall of Sound in Europe and in the U.S., Saddle
Creek, Barsuk, Domino and more. In November, eMusic announced the sale of
250 million downloads since establishing its current subscription model in
2003.
Madeleine Milne will speak at MIDEM in Cannes on Tuesday, January 20 on the
"Indies and the Digital Landscape² panel.”
Chris, The eMusic service (which is great) excludes almost all popular hits (because it can't afford to sell them) and, as its managing director notes in the release, is a business that's all tail and no head. Do you think that that makes its example less useful in gauging general patterns of online purchases? Nick
Posted by: Nick Carr | January 15, 2009 at 09:26 AM
Hi Chris, my name is Carlos Salas. I would like to interview you for the largest spanish scientific/divulgative magazine with more than 2,5 millions readers in Spain and Latin America. The magazine's name is Muy Interesante (Very Interesting, in english). My aim is to get some opinions from you about your next book, "Free". May I have your e mail os a phone number?
Thank you, Carlos Salas
(You can see my e mail)
Posted by: carlos salas | January 15, 2009 at 10:08 AM
Nick,
Yes, I wouldn't attempt to characterize all online purchases, or even all music purchases, on the basis of this data. But at least we know where this data set is from, so we can make that discrimination and think about what it does and doesn't mean. That's the point: data+source is meaningful; data-source is not meaningful. My problem with the UK data is that we don't know where it's from and thus can't ask these questions.
Posted by: Chris Anderson | January 15, 2009 at 10:14 AM
Nick, it is possible that the patterns would be different, but the fact that eMusic DOES NOT sell major label music is even more of a testament to the 75% feat. Naturally, it's much harder to sell indie music... it is the Long Tail, the head is the major labels. It can't sell major label music because the reocord labels charge too much. It's short-sightedness by them, they should be making money by any avenue possible. However, the fact that eMusic is mostly indie helps keep their community strong and passionate, since most true music fans frown upon top 40 hits and pop culture sell-outs like Fall Out Boy.
Posted by: James Stevens | January 15, 2009 at 10:21 AM
Great post
Posted by: Jason | January 15, 2009 at 05:54 PM
My problem with the UK data is that we don't know where it's from and thus can't ask these questions.
I couldn't agree more.
Posted by: Nick Carr | January 15, 2009 at 06:02 PM
Might this also have something to do with the fact that eMusic works on a tracks per month subscription model?
As an eMusic user I often have credits left over after downloading stuff I really want, and regard these as effectively free downloads that I can use to "explore".
Posted by: Jon | January 16, 2009 at 01:23 AM
Good to see that eMusic's sales support the model proposed in 'The Long Tail" I wonder how many other industries would benefit from understanding this concept?
Posted by: Cynthia Penfold | January 16, 2009 at 04:29 AM
Based on my experience as an information architect, I have no doubt that the researches that find results contradicting the "Long Tail" theory have nothing to do with the lack of foundation for the theory, but rather are a consequence of inadequate tools to help users find relevant items from the long tail that might want to consume.
"Web 2.0 features, insightful editorial content, a passionate subscriber community and an easy-to-use and effective recommendation engine" are examples of capabilities that would allow other businesses to take advantage of the Long Tail the same way as eMusic did.
Posted by: A.B. | January 16, 2009 at 08:08 AM
Chris,
I don’t know if you can qualify eMusic’s subscription model as a long tail business. It is misleading to say that they 75% of it’s tracks “sold”, since the store "sells" music in a subscription model. In many of the long tail examples, the product was priced uniformly across the tail. This seems to be a case against the long tail, but I am skeptical of the results from the UK data. I think it is important to note that eMusic’s web 2.0 features create “filters” (a main component of long tail businesses) with editorial content and some sort of community.
I think that Amiestreet.com is an interesting case because it varies their pricing dynamically with demand to maintain the low opportunity cost for consumers to experience new and/or obscure music. I'm curious to see any news on their successes or lack thereof.
I've done quite a bit of analysis on the phenomenon of free and music. Music makes for an interesting case because it is a product that consumers develop a passion for in different degrees which then translates into a large range of perceived value and willingness to pay. Check out my analyses of Radiohead's In Rainbows. Part 1 is quantitative, part 2 is qualitative.
Part 1:
http://enoughcowbell.com/2008/12/17/solving-the-mystery-of-in-rainbows-average-download-price-part-1-of-2/
Part 2:
http://enoughcowbell.com/2008/12/18/radiohead-says-in-rainbows-experiment-is-a-success-will-it-work-for-all-part-2-of-2/
Posted by: James | January 16, 2009 at 08:31 AM
Three points.
Yes it is a problem that we don't know the source of the UK study data. But it is no better to have hidden data from a known source self-interpreted by the owner of that source and produced as a press release (which I can find nowhere but here - not even on the e-Music site). Am I missing something? Sometimes I just wish there was some actual data we could look at.
"The Long Tail" p 149 explicitly states that successful long-tail businesses will be ones that provide both the head and the tail. And that the failure of MP3.com was because "it was only the Long Tail". eMusic is built to sell indie music. If it is successful, then that would appear to be in conflict with your book, so I don't see how it can be a vindication of the LT.
And finally, the only substantive statements I can see are that "approximately 75% of eMusic tracks sold at least once during
2008" and that "The company also announced that its catalogue has surpassed five million
tracks." These are very sketchy and are open to all sorts of interpretation, especially given the conflict of interest that eMusic has. How many titles sold just once for example? I don't see how you can get any kind of support for the LT from this unless there was more in the email than is posted here. The comment from James above makes sense to me also - a subscription model will promote diversity because if you have a few items to use up at the end of the month it costs you nothing to try a few oddities.
Posted by: tomslee | January 16, 2009 at 10:39 AM
I've done some analysis of this using Hitwise internet usage data here:
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2009/01/emusic_and_the_long_tail.html
Like some of the other commentators above, I also came to the conclusion that eMusic is not a typical music retailer. This is due to its subscription model - customers cannot rollover credits at the end of the month, so are encouraged to download tail tracks - and the fact that it focusses on independent music (or perhaps more importantly, doesn't include much mainstream music).
Posted by: Robin Goad | January 20, 2009 at 12:15 AM
Nice to see so good informations. Very good blog.
Posted by: twojeanonse | January 20, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Good news!
One of the best blog!
Posted by: M. Laporte | January 20, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Interesting to see a number of people questioning the worth of this data on the basis of this data being from a subscription based service.
Chris's original article and book featured data from Rhapsody's subscription service prominently. Perhaps the observations made above (using 'free' subscription credits encourages playing in the tail) is a cause to revisit some original conclusions but it does not mean this model doesn't 'qualify'.
Posted by: Arun D | January 20, 2009 at 07:42 PM
Hopefully this type of trend will continue
Posted by: Reference | January 20, 2009 at 09:22 PM
Arun D: The decision to compare Rhapsody to that most limited of bricks-and-mortar store Wal-Mart was one of the reasons I felt the hypothesis was never proven in the book (see here: http://whimsley.typepad.com/whimsley/2007/03/the_long_tail_l.html).
The eMusic datum (not actually data: one number is all we have) does not disprove the hypothesis, but neither does it confirm it, or even contradict the Will Page study (which also unfortunately relies on proprietary data, of course). Similarly, the repeated references to iTunes as a long tail music vendor has never been backed up by data. In the book there is no data about iTunes at all, for example.
The onus of proof is surely on the proposer of a hypothesis. The Long Tail has not been demonstrated to be a valuable business model *except* in that the biggest Internet players can reach further down into small-scale production than in the bricks-and-mortar world. Most importantly in my mind, it has not been demonstrated that the digital world promotes a more diverse ("niche driven") culture than the bricks-and-mortar world.
Posted by: tomslee | January 21, 2009 at 05:07 AM
i've been suspecting this for a long time. confirmed at last.
regards,
www.araamatupidamine.ee
Posted by: AABIA Outsourcing | January 23, 2009 at 01:34 AM
i've been suspecting this for a long time. confirmed at last.
regards,
www.araamatupidamine.ee
Posted by: AABIA Outsourcing | January 23, 2009 at 01:34 AM
It is natural to fight for a theory you believe in... especially one which pays the bills. Not surprisingly, Mr. Anderson objects to any data that tends to disprove his theory and champions any data that supports "The Long Tail".
I worked for DMGI, one of the first major music aggregators built on the a long tail concept... it failed. The reason was simple... sales were low and costs were high. Every tail needs a head... without it you just end up wagging yourself to death.
Posted by: MightyMedia Man | January 23, 2009 at 02:49 AM
"Every tail needs a head" is one of the themes of my book, in exactly those words. I wish people would actually respond to what I've written, rather than some misremembering of it.
Posted by: Chris Anderson | January 23, 2009 at 04:55 AM
PS: the cautionary tale I told in the book about the need for head *and* tail was that of MP3.com, which failed for the same reason.
Posted by: Chris Anderson | January 23, 2009 at 05:08 AM
It's all about quality... real or perceived. The lack of a head was not the reason MP3.com failed. It was doomed because the mass of their content was... well... crap. No one likes to wade through it.
Posted by: MightyMediaMan | January 23, 2009 at 09:32 AM
P.S: In a world where the perceived value of all media continues to decline, as does the retail price, a company needs a very substantial head and body to thrive... and quality is paramount. I'm not saying that a tail isn't a nice thing to have, it is... but like every animal I can think of, a business must be able to thrive when the tail is removed... any company which chases its tail, will run in circles and go nowhere.
Posted by: MightyMediaMan | January 23, 2009 at 09:49 AM
As far as the eMusic data is concerned: When all you have is a tail... it becomes your head. If I own the Scotch Tape store in the new mall and I sell 75% of all the types of tape I carry, does that prove "The Long Tail" theory. No. Anyone coming to my store is looking for Scotch tape, so while that product might be the tail for a gift shop across the promenade, for me it's the entire body. (Please excuse my ancient SNL Scotch Tape store reference)
Posted by: Stampczarus | January 23, 2009 at 10:17 AM
great blog I agree it is all about quality
Posted by: Corey Frisbee | January 30, 2009 at 11:40 AM
... especially one which pays the bills. Not surprisingly, Mr. Anderson objects to any data that tends to disprove his theory and champions any data that supports "The Long Tail".
I worked for DMGI, one of the first major music aggregators built on the a long tail concept... it failed. The reason was simple... sales were low and costs were high. Every tail needs a head... without
subscription based service.
Chris's original article and book featured data from Rhapsody's subscription service prominently. Perhaps the observations made above (using 'free' subscription credits encourages playing in the tail) is a cause to revisit some original conclusions but it does not mean this model doesn't 'qualify'.
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conclusion that eMusic is not a typical music retailer. This is due to its subscription model - customers cannot rollover credits at the end of the month, so are encouraged to download tail tracks - and the fact that it focusses on independent music (or perhaps more importantly, doesn't include much mainstream music). independently using data from O’Reilly and Random House (the largest tech publisher and general publisher in the world, respectively). The new slides, from the recent Book Expo America, expand the work with a larger data-set, and confirm the earlier findings that free downloads are broadlyPosted by: منتديات | July 09, 2009 at 04:37 AM
Hi Chris, my name is Carlos Salas. I would like to interview you for the largest
دردشه
... sales were low and costs were high. Every tail needs a head... without it you just end up wagging yourself
منتديات
actually respond to what I've written, rather than someMost importantly in my mind, it has not been demonstrated that the digital world promotes
منتدي
شات
Posted by: منتديات | July 09, 2009 at 10:02 PM
These are very sketchy and are open to all sorts of interpretation, especially given the conflict of interest that eMusic has. How many titles sold just once for example?
David From the Deeper Voice Blog
Posted by: David | July 30, 2009 at 11:11 AM
eMusic's data seems to contradict this and back Anderson's theory. "eMusic is the Long Tail," Madeleine Milne, eMusic's managing director for Europe, said in a statement. Using both automated features and editorial content, eMusic highlights even the neglected corners of their catalogue, Milne said. "Our customers buy music beyond the mainstream Top 40 because we provide them with more context .. experimentation.
Posted by: iron | October 26, 2009 at 02:48 AM
Well, nice article buddy… Someone will love to read this infor if I tell her about this. For those of you thinking that if they implement this it will eliminate some of the waiting and lines…
meme estetiği
yüz estetiği
burun estetiği
Posted by: Account Deleted | November 07, 2009 at 02:07 AM