Is this how the singularity happens?

This was one of those freaky moments when the future sneaks up and smacks you. I was on a plane earlier this week and took a break from work to watch the movie while they served dinner. It was Terminator Salvation, which once again tells us what happens when Skynet becomes self-aware and the machines take over. Then they cleared dinner, and I opened my laptop again and resumed work where I left off: programming unmanned aerial vehicles in RobotC.

Which is exactly, of course, how Skynet becomes self-aware. Have I learned nothing?!!

Seriously, it was a kinda weird moment. After all, if we ever do hit a singularity when the collective ability of machines (I won’t use the word “intelligence”, since we neither really know what that means, nor are we likely to recognize it in machines) exceed that of humans, it will because of lots of people like me doing just what I was doing.

And yet, I couldn’t imagine not doing it. I was programming UAVs in RobotC because I can—the technological opportunity was in front of me and I couldn’t resist taking it. Indeed, I was working rather than watching the rest of the movie because I was keen to finish the project faster, so nobody could beat me to it. My competitive drive was pushing to me to do what was possible, mostly just because it was possible and hadn’t been done yet.

In a sense, I couldn’t help myself. We are innovative animals. If something can be invented, we feel compelled to invent it. If I don’t do it, someone else will. That which can be invented, must be. It almost doesn’t matter how useful it will be or even if it might be dangerous. Matches must be struck, just to watch them burn.

I wondered if the inventors of the atomic bomb felt the same way. Atoms can fuse, so let’s fuse them. Chain reactions can take place, so let’s start one. They can happen faster with the right materials and conditions, so let’s create them. And so on. Each step of the way is just grabbing the natural opportunity in front of us, but the end result is a weapon of mass destruction.

Of course with the atomic bomb, it was eventually clear that the next step would lead to a terrifying weapon and wise minds considered whether or not to take that step (they decided to do so because they knew that others would get there soon, and with perhaps worse consequences).

But in the case of “Skynet becoming self-aware” (yes, I know that’s just a movie, but indulge me for the sake of the thought experiment), would that threshold be as clear?

Will it come someday with some guy like me fixing the last bug in his code and pressing compile? Will he even know what he has done? Or will it be more gradual, with loads of us building it bit by bit, with no single moment, technology or decision marking the point where we crossed the line?

Maybe that day will never come. But it stopped me in my tracks for a few minutes as I reflected on how amoral invention is. Technology wants to be invented and we are almost powerless to stop it. We are hard-wired to create the future, be it good or bad. Invention is its own master.

And then I went back to programming the robot. After all if I don’t make airplanes self-aware someone else will. And I can’t let them get the glory!

(Diagram of the real Skynet from the BBC.)

Comments

[Viktor Vojtko]

Wow, at this particular moment the same film has started in my TV ... isn't it strange? Such an synchronicity?

[Claes Mogren]

I guess you have read Kevin Kelly's epic Technium posts? A lot of them concern the same topic as this post.

Good post too, btw! :-)

[Ruben Bos]

The answer is really easy: this is what we call evolution and the survival of the fittest. It's just nature's way of getting rid of us.

[twitter.com/VTJon]

(Just got done listening to "Free" Chris...good work. Looking forward to your words filling up my Google Reader.)

As long as you don't tell us that a Terminator won't again go on to become a governor of a major state, then I'm fine with technology becoming more aware.

Hack away....

[sambit]

good luck with the UAVs

the problem isnt if technology will someday surpass our abilities (for it most certainly will)... the problem is if we create it in our present image.. including our worst tendencies as a species.

[Geoff]

Minor semantic detail... atomic bombs are fission reactions, not fusion. Sorry to split.. eh.. atoms.

[marketing mix]

I think it's just a matter of time before robots/machines will be able to do so much in human life, and great things can be achieved to help lots of people.

Nice post too chris. Dennis

[jefro.wordpress.com]

Which is exactly, of course, how Skynet becomes self-aware. Have I learned nothing?!!

Ok, I actually laughed out loud at that one.

[Wine Review]

The problem comes when the creators fail to assume ownership and responsbility for damage, pay compensation for damage and loss of anythings caused due to the use of their inventions. If you created something and somebody lost something because of it, then you must own it up and act responsibly. Sadly, that is missing. Inventors think their job ends when they push stuff out of the production line, then its no longer under their control or ownership/responsibility. That is the prevailing mentality/idealogy.

[BJA]

Enternal conceate of man will never supply a machine that will completely control it's self. There is a world of difference when thinking intelligence, knowledge, and wisdon function in the same RAM or span of time. Enternal conceate can be defined as simplely as the comment "matches must be struck, just to watch them burn."

[Jay Epoch]

In your book "Free" you have three core enablers of your ideas-- too cheap to meter Storage, CPU, and Bandwidth. By design or coincidence these are three enablers of the Singularity, according to Raymond Kurzweil in his book "The Singularity Is Near":

"..The Singularity will begin with the fifth epoch. It will result from the merger of vast knowledge embedded in our own brains with the vastly greater capacity {storage}, speed {cpu}, and knowledge-sharing ability {bandwidth} of our our technology."

http://books.google.com/books?id=88U6hdUi6D0C&lpg=PP1&client=firefox-a&pg=PA20#v=twopage&q=&f=true

[Sandeep]

Skynet is an artificially intelligent system which became self aware and revolted against its creators.Its actions are often performed via other robots and computer systems.
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[manzara resimleri]

Minor semantic detail... atomic bombs are fission reactions, not fusion. Sorry to split.. eh.. atoms.

[Olga]

It's not exactly true that the nuclear program in America was in response to the thirst for knowledge by some scientists.
In reality the nazis were doing some nuclear research and it was thought that if successful they would use that technology in their V-rockets against the Uk considering the range they had at the time. So the nuclear bomb was research being done to have something against them in case they were successful. They were not successful (I think the allies bombed some heavy water facilities use in that research in Norway) and the war in Europe took a favourable turn for the Allies. So when your government was faced with a fight island by island with the Japanese and the use they made of the kamikazes (besides there were already tensions between the western allies and the USSR) they decided to "recycle" the project and use it against the Japanese. That way somehow they could minimised the number of casualties in the Allies (mostly americans) side. It was never intended to be use against the Japanese but to counteract Nazi Germany

[Olga]

Forgive the second comment but I would add that there's huge debate amongst the people involved in the Manhattan project about the ethics of the whole issue. They were very aware of the consequences and the future arms race it could began. Everyone involved in the project was aware of the dangers there were very heated debates and what it tilted the balance was that the Nazis could get it first. It was German scientists inside and outside Germany who sent the information to the Allies and helped in the project because they realise what it meant for the Nazis to get there first.
So the problem is not the technology and certainly there is no need of an epoch, if you really want to understand or get that magical epoch you simply need to listen and by listening I mean really listen to other people. You have millions of answers to problems, the problem is that seems that each person needs to learn or discover again things that have already been discovered by others many times before. That's why crowd sourcing works, it's not that many people working in one problems get the best decision but that some already knows the answer and what you crowdsource is the process of getting a question to as many as possible and really listen for the right answer that someone or maybe many already have, because only a few of the answers would be right.

About the epoch you talk do you realise that in both, Terminator and the Matrix, films humans for some mistake create something that have self-conscience and that those beings oppress humans and destroy the planet to the point of extinction of all common life forms. And if you look carefully you would realise that in reality what the machines are doing in those films is exactly what we humans are doing in the planet, and the moment we started to be aware of ourselves as it happens to the machines in the films, we started to destroy everything around us as the machines do in the films. It looks to me that the machines depict us not machines.

And about the epoch I have the feeling it's already happened, people just simply don't listen. We don't need better computers we just need to really listen, the answers are already there and have been answer but millions before millions of times.

Just a thought

[anonymous]

Any such process will probably be gradual. Possibly fast if it happens in some runaway simulation that just happens to mix the right ingredients, but still gradual in the sense that a 'skynet AI' will not just pop into existence, with builtin hostile goals and whatnot.

Just like the new world order, it will creep up on us, like boiling frogs. If it acts too fast, people will notice it and take countermeasures, and then it won't be a skynet, just an unfortunate software malfunction that got corrected before it could cause too much damage ;)

[مقاطع]

good :) what we humans are doing in the planet, and the moment we started to be aware of

[Resveratrol]

When we discover what happens in a singularity (the center of a black hole) we'll be a step closer to a grand unified
theory.

Resveratrol

[bildschirmschoner aquarium]

It is an easiest way to solve it.I was wondering this stuff only.I would like to thank for sharing such an informative article here.It is very useful for all of us.

[Jason B]

I would argue that the singularity is an evolutionary imperative. Humans are most definitely not the end of evolution, we're just creating the next dominant species.

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In the last few years it decades and has been subjected main particular part in to electronics studies, this is not endless, and this will evolute for next generation definitely.
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[Nate H]

Awesome post! I wonder what programming language was used for "skynet" hmmmm....

[Martin]

Fantastic post - good self reflections.

....
Technology wants to be invented and we are almost powerless to stop it. We are hard-wired to create the future, be it good or bad. Invention is its own master. - I don't believe in that.
....

And I can’t let them get the glory - Now this is the essence
....

AND that's just the whole force behind everything. This is simply why it is in our nature to destroy ourselves. We just strive so hard to win... And yet we all might loose in the long run.

[foto cewek cantik bugil]

It's not exactly true that the nuclear program in America was in response to the thirst for knowledge by some scientists.
In reality the nazis were doing some nuclear research and it was thought that if successful they would use that technology in their V-rockets against the Uk considering the range they had at the time. So the nuclear bomb was research being done to have something against them in case they were successful. They were not successful

[David Phillips FIPR]

The nature of humanity is to extend its physiology. The horse allowed us to go faster than our legs would carry us and the 'plane does it even better. The internet allows us to access a huge memory and so forth (it is in my book) but does this lead to a singularity?
Perhaps all it does is extend the continuum.

[baddu]

This is right point for commenting. This is also A advance true that technology changes everyone's life.
We can just try to look its increasing. .
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[bucabay]

Great post. Great comment by Olga. Never thought of crowd sourcing that way. Thinking about the topic, I realize just how much of an advantage Google has now. They know where all the information goes, so they know exactly which group to ask in order to get a question answered collectively. If they ever wanted to create a crowd sourcing engine...

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It was really nice post. And must say that you written it really well. We appreciate the time you must have taken to present this information so clearly.

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[Josephine]

Fantastic article Chris - Im currently ready the long tail book and finding it very interesting!

[grüner tee]

I have read the article based on the Singularity happens.I like post very much as it contain informative knowledge.This is simply why it is in our nature to destroy ourselves.Possibly fast if it happens in some runaway simulation that just happens to mix the right ingredients, but still gradual in the sense that a sky-net AI will not just pop into existence, with built in hostile goals and whatnot.I want to know suggestion from others.

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[Force Factor]

no one really knows what goes on inside the black hole, because the event horizon prevents observing it. in any case mass and energy are equivalent, so the black hole has the same gravitational effects whatever the form of the matter inside it is.

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[sd karte]

Hi,
I have heard that SkyNET is a sky chart program for .NET. It works under Mono using the Gtk# library, and more limited Qt# and #WT frontends are provided now. If you are looking for a free good mature astronomical program for Linux try the excelent KStars.